Experts at a virtual dialogue discussed ways to convert the current challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic into opportunities through proper recovery measures, keeping Bangladesh on the right track of development.
They said Bangladesh must pursue it as there would be sunshine amid clouds that the COVID-19 brought which is truly a global catastrophe.
Cosmos Foundation, the philanthropic arm of Cosmos Group, organised the webinar as part of Cosmos Dialogue, titled ‘Impact of COVID-19 on Bangladesh: Prognosis for Recovery’ on Friday night connecting experts from home and abroad virtually.
Chairman of Cosmos Foundation Enayetullah Khan delivered the welcome speech at the webinar chaired by Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury, the principal research fellow at the Institute of South Asian Studies, National University of Singapore, and former foreign affairs adviser to Bangladesh’s previous caretaker government.
Prominent economist and chairman of Policy Research Institute Zaidi Sattar talked about the macroeconomic impact of COVID-19 on Bangladesh and prognosis for recovery.
Professor Haider Khan, John Evans Distinguished Professor of Economics at the University of Denver, highlighted the geopolitical implications of COVID-19 and challenges for Bangladesh.
Muhammed Aziz Khan, founder and chairman of Summit Power International Limited, Summit Holdings Ltd and IPCO Developments (Bangladesh) Limited, talked about the impact of COVID-19 on infrastructures in Bangladesh.
Executive director, Campaign for Popular Education and former adviser to a previous caretaker government, Rasheda K Choudhury spoke with focus on the impact of COVID-19 on women and education in Bangladesh and its recovery plans.
President of Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association Rubana Huq discussed the impact of COVID-19 on the readymade garment sector in Bangladesh.
Cosmos Foundation executive director Nahar Khan delivered the concluding remarks.
‘The catastrophe is truly global. This is a hill we’ll have to climb,’ said Iftekhar adding that the recovery will be there gradually.
He laid emphasis on converting the challenges to opportunities through joint efforts.
Zaidi Sattar said that it is pandemic globally, not epidemic and the government of Bangladesh was very quick to respond without wasting any time.
He highlighted the impact on the Bangladesh economy as its economy was well-integrated with the global economy.
The economist said that there would be need for more fiscal resources and cash transfers as many people would need them. ‘Policymakers are trying their best.’
Talking about recovery, he said it needs to be seen what is going on externally and domestically and mentioned that economic recovery cannot happen with ‘imbalance’ incentives.
Zaidi Sattar laid emphasis on export diversification, more investment and ensuring balanced incentives for the relevant sectors.
Rubana said it was almost like a nightmare and for them it was a critical journey when they saw RMG export orders worth over US$ 3.15 billion were cancelled or held up.
Responding to a question, she said they negotiated almost 48 per cent of the cancelled orders to be reinstated but the payment terms were still vague.
Aziz Khan said that there would be huge opportunities for Bangladesh in the post-COVID-19 scenario that the country needed to utilise.
Talking about the impact of COVID-19 on infrastructures in Bangladesh, he said that the pandemic would bring about a new life and new culture.
The prominent businessman said that here was shortage both in demand and supply, and this would encourage other countries to supply to Bangladesh and also took goods from the country.
‘Bangladesh will be in a much stronger position to negotiate with the importers of garments which is a basic goods,’ he added. ‘We will have the possibility to have better contracts.’
Describing different infrastructural development in the country, Aziz Khan said that Bangladesh now generates 20,000 MW of electricity, Padma Bridge and three ports were coming up which would connect the country with the rest of the world.
‘Many African countries do not have port facilities for which they have to suffer a lot, but Bangladesh has got that opportunity,’ he said adding that metro rail, underground tunnel projects were being implemented which would create new opportunities for the country.
Aziz Khan said that the government should look into the portfolio infrastructures as how they could be implemented in a faster way.
He said that Bangladesh’s large import was the energy and its cost would be half in post-COVID-19 era. ‘This means if we have to spend $4 billion, now we will need $2 billion.’
‘So, I see the biggest opportunity in this regard,’ he added.
Aziz Khan said that COVID-19 was certainly bad for all but these opportunities were the ‘stars in the darkness’.
‘There could be sunshine and there could be sunshine in the cloud for which Bangladesh must pursue,’ he said.
Professor Haider Khan said that Bangladesh needed to keep friendly relationship both in rhetoric and in practice with its neighbouring countries.
But, he added, Bangladesh also needed to practice time-honoured and strategic good relationship on the move which is called ‘balancing’.
The expert said it was a very obvious geopolitical fact that Bangladesh is surrounded by three sides - with lands by one country - India.
‘We have another country which is not always friendly to us - Myanmar on the south and then we have the Bay of Bengal but we cannot control much of our Bay of Bengal, and we should remember that as well,’ Haider Khan said.
He said that there were basically several balancing powers. ‘We have the US, the EU but more importantly, I would say we have China and Japan, especially with China as an emerging power. We need to monitor very carefully on dialogues amicably but substantively with China, and Japan at the same time. And who knows - we would be able to play a positive role in advancing East Asia, being a bridge country.’
Responding to question, he said that being a realist he did not think that the US and China could be decoupled so easily - especially the US from China.
Even in this crisis, it turns out that a lot of important medicines come to the US from China, he said.
Renowned educationist and social activist Rasheda K Chowdhury signaled five major consequences, including large scale dropouts, amid disruption of educational activities due to COVID-19 and sought a comprehensive recovery plan involving teachers.
‘It has to be a comprehensive recovery plan. In any recovery plan (for the education sector), teachers need to be involved,’ said Rasheda.
Anything otherwise, and whatever has been achieved till now in the education sector will be at risk.
Apart from ‘possible’ (since official numbers are not published yet) large scale dropouts, she also mentioned a possible concurrent increase in child labour, or early marriage for girls which would consequently increase early pregnancy and increasing malnutrition.
The educationist said that the COVID-19 was impacting on everything and there was need for COVID-19 recovery plan in education system. ‘There has to be investment.’
Rasheda highlighted the educational deficit between Bangladesh and other countries citing UN statistics.
‘Globally 1.2 billion learners are still out of educational institutions. Developed countries have reached out to those among their own populations but in Bangladesh we have 40 million students, ranging from pre-primary to higher education level,’ she said.
She noted that the government had been trying four methods to reduce learning loss after the closure of educational institutes due to COVID-19 pandemic — televised lessons, online courses, radio broadcast and through mobile devices.
‘(Despite the effort) we have not been able to reach out to large number of vulnerable student groups including women and ethnic minorities,’ said the educationist.
The CAMPE director said that girls would be hard hit all the time due to the pandemic and gender based violence inside home would increase as well.
Enayetullah Khan said that they saw a simultaneous disruption both in supply and demand chains.
The world, in the post-COVID-19 era, would be different one and the recovery would come in different ways.
Nahar Khan said that as they could perceive, COVID-19 would remain a continuing challenge which would require a continuing response.
She said that the Cosmos Foundation would host several such virtual discussions as part of a series focused on this issue.
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