Economic growth at 7 per cent of seven countries including Bangladesh is expected to sustain in the next decade, according to a research note of Standard Chartered Bank.
The seven countries across the globe will be on the list of 7-per cent growth club in the 2020s dominated by Asian countries, according to a Bloomberg report published in India-based The Print on Sunday.
Bangladesh’s per capita income will also increase by more than three and a half times to $5,700, exceeding India, by 2030 from $1,600 in 2018, said the report referring to the Standard Chartered Bank note.
The 2020s is set to be the Asian decade with the continent dominating an exclusive list of economies expected to sustain growth rates of around 7 per cent, the report said, adding that five of seven in the group were in Asia.
The other members of the 7-per cent growth club include India, Vietnam, Myanmar, the Philippines, Ethiopia and Cote d’lvoire known as Ivory Coast.
India, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Myanmar and the Philippines should all meet that benchmark, according to a research note from Standard Chartered’s India-based thematic research head Madhur Jha and global chief economist David Mann.
Ethiopia and Côte d’Ivoire are also likely to reach the 7-per cent growth pace, which typically means a doubling of gross domestic product growth every 10 years.
That will be a boon to per-capita incomes, with Vietnam’s soaring to $10,400 in 2030 from about $2,500 last year, SCB estimated.
India’s per capita income will reach to $5,400 in 2030 from $1,900 in 2018, it said.
According to SCB, the South Asian members of the group should be GDP standouts as they will together account for about one-fifth of the world’s population by 2030.
The demographic dividend will be a boon for India, while Bangladesh’s investments in health and education should juice productivity, it said.
The Asian dominance on the list is a change from 2010 when the bank first started tracking the economies it expected to grow by around 7 per cent. Back then, there were 10 members evenly split between Asia and Africa: China, India, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Uganda, and Mozambique.
China is a notable absence from the latest ranking after being a member of the club for almost four decades —reflecting both a slowdown in economic growth and a progression towards higher per-capita incomes that makes faster growth rates more difficult to sustain.
Standard Chartered estimated the world’s no 2 economy would keep up a 5.5-per cent economic growth pace in the 2020s.
While faster economic growth is not a panacea — think income inequality, crime, pollution — it tends to come with a lot of positive knock-on effects, Jha and Mann wrote.
‘Faster growth not only helps to lift people more quickly out of absolute poverty, but is also usually accompanied by better health and education, as well as a wider range of — and better access to — goods and services,’ they said in the report.
‘Higher incomes resulting from faster growth also usually reduce socio-political instability and make it easier to introduce structural reforms, creating a virtuous cycle,’ they added.
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