Economist expresses doubt about govt estimation
The country’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth finally hit the highest ever 7.11 per cent, 0.06 percentage points higher than the provisional estimation, in the last fiscal year of 2015-16, according to the final estimation of the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics.
The country achieved the growth mainly because of higher growth in industries and agriculture sectors, than the provisional estimation, in the year, the data released on Tuesday showed.
Earlier in April, the BBS had said in its provisional projection that the economic growth in the year would be 7.05 per cent which was calculated based on nine months economic data.
Bangladesh had achieved GDP growth over 7 per cent once nine years ago in FY 2006-2007 at 7.06 per cent, the data showed.
Economist and former caretaker government’s finance adviser Mirza Azizul Islam expressed doubts over the government calculated GDP growth for the year.
He told New Age that many economic indicators including private sector investment, private sector credit growth, capital input and capital goods import growth in the last fiscal year were not supportive of the calculated growth.
Planning minister AHM Mustafa Kamal disclosed the information about GDP growth at the post ECNEC press briefing held at NEC conference room in the city’s Agargaon.
He said that the final calculation of the GDP growth had been placed at the ECNEC meeting held at PMO presided over by prime minister Sheikh Hasina.
Following the GDP growth rate for the last fiscal year, finance minister Abul Maal Aabdul Muhith said at a meeting held at secretariat with diasporas living in the United Kingdom and other European countries that the government was confident to obtain projected 7.3 per cent growth in the current fiscal year.
He said available data of economic indicators in the first quarter of the current fiscal year are very good.
According to the final calculation of the BBS, the overall size of the GDP at constant market price for the FY16 stood at Tk 8,835,389 million which was Tk 8,248,624 million in FY 2015.
The size of GDP at current market price stood at Tk 17,328,637 million in the year.
The agriculture sector grew by 2.79 per cent, industrial sector by 11.09 per cent and services sector grew by 6.25 per cent in the year.
In the provisional data, the BBS estimated 2.60 per cent, 10.10 per cent and 6.70 per cent growth respectively for agriculture, industry and services sectors.
The growth in agriculture, industry and services sectors were 3.33 per cent, 9.67 per cent and 5.80 per cent respectively in previous fiscal year of 2015.
Per capita national income, however, declined by US$ 1 to US$ 1,465 in the year from that of provisional estimation of US$ 1,466, Kamal said, adding that it happened due to upward change in US dollar exchange rate.
In FY 2014-15, per capita national income was US$ 1,316 in the country.
Earlier in September, Asian Development Bank had said that Bangladesh Economy grew by 7.1 per cent in the last year while International Monetary Fund said that GDP grew at 6.9 per cent in the year.
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